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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-01-19T11:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-19T11:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23368/-1
CME Note: Super faint CME (best seen in difference imagery) E in C2/C3 and COR2A. Its source is likely the relatively minor eruption associated with M class flare from AR 3196 (N12E38) peaking at 2023-01-19T10:12Z. Eruption is seen in AIA 304 starting around 2023-01-19T10:20Z and is directed mostly southward (explaining why the CME might be deflected to the south). Eruption is also seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 as dimming (and possibly a EUV wave), with dimming mostly to the SE of the AR. Arrival observed at Earth on 2023-01-23T02:59Z is believed to be more likely associated with CME: 2023-01-20T16:12Z, but could be a combined arrival of two or more CMEs, including this one.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-23T14:00Z (-24.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 20/0940Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 530
Longitude (deg): 5E
Latitude (deg): 9S
Half-angular width (deg): 47 

Notes: Very faint halo.
Space weather advisor: Duty

Lead Time: 48.52 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-01-21T13:29Z

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